Football bettors everywhere dream of coming up with a method that allows them to earn money from the football betting. There are numerous football betting strategies available So where should you begin? What are you going to do with your money and time? Here we’ll discuss some of the top betting strategies you can use.
How do bookies come up with football betting odds
Before I go into the various football betting strategies, I’ll begin by describing a crucial aspect of betting on sports which is often ignored. I find it fascinating that the majority of football punters do not even understand how bookmakers calculate their odds. Here’s a brief description: The odds are an indication of the probabilities. Every bookmaker employs hundreds of statisticians to calculate the probabilities. Therefore, think of FC Barcelona playing away at PSG. In this scenario statisticians have created the following outcomes probabilities.
The probabilities are transformed into odds by multiplying each chance by 100.
Note that if you combine all the probabilities mentioned above you’d have about 100 percent.
100% is an appropriate market margin. This means that if all markets have equal participation from bettors across the course of a large sample of bets, there will be no profits for the bookmakers or bettors.
Also an equitable market margin implies that there is no advantage for the bookmaker or the bookmaker. Everybody should make a profit in the end.
The bookies, like us are here to make money.
The way they work is to make their own margins on the odds.
Once the margin has been added after which the probabilities and odds could look like this.
If you take all the possible probabilities, you will be able to get around 109.4 percent. The 9.4 percent is the future profit that the bookie should achieve. Typically, the margin of the bookie is anywhere between 2percent (for hard bookies) all the way to percent (soft bookies).
That means that a bookie could earn anywhere from PS20 or PS250 for each PS1000 bet by the betting players.
Now, let’s look at some betting techniques.
Value Betting Football Strategy
The most sought-after soccer betting techniques.
A value bet occurs when the odds of winning is higher than the chance that is expressed in the odds the bookmaker offers.
For illustration, let’s take the same illustration as the one above.
FC Barcelona is playing away at PSG and betting sites are betting that Barcelona winning at 2.5.
This means that betting houses believe that Barcelona is 40 percent (100/2.5) chance of winning the game.
But, through different calculations, you’ve concluded that the likelihood of winning at Barcelona victory is 50 percent.
So, the odds of winning at Barcelona victory would be two (100/50) instead of 2.5.
The bookmaker committed a mistake and you have identified a high-value bet.
If you’re finding events in which the likelihood of an event happening is greater than the one predicted by the odds of the bookmaker that is, you’ll gain in the end.
Value betting is among the most effective betting strategies there.
To fully comprehend Value betting, we need to know the way we will benefit from value betting over the long run.
the Expected Value a Bet is the amount that a gambler expects to lose or win in the event of placing bets on the exact odds over and over.
The formula used to calculate an bet’s EV is:
the Expected Value bets is the amount the gambler is hoping to lose or win in the event of placing bets on the exact odds on a regular basis.
(Probability of Winning) x (Amount Won per Bet) – (Probability of Losing) x (Amount Lost per Bet)
Thus that the next time FC Barcelona (2.50) plays PSG (2.50) with an outcome of draw at 3.40 A bet of PS100 on Barcelona could yield winners that equal PS150 with a chance of this happening at 40 percent or .4.
The chance of losing is the result of the PSG win chance of 40 percent (.4) plus the likelihood of a draw is 29.4 percent (.294).
So .4+.29=.69
We take all that data and integrate in our mathematical equation.
(.4 x 150) – (.69 x 100) = -9
This means you’ll be losing an average PS9 per PS100 staked.
But, suppose the odds of winning a Barcelona victory is 50 percent. The EV rises to 6.
This means you’ll be able to win an average of PS6 per PS100 staked.
Value betting is a form of betting. it is essential to bet on the long-term.
The aim of this betting system for football isn’t to bet every time The goal is to always place bets with more chance of winning than is suggested by odds.
If you place a large amount of bets, odds will level out, and only those who can consistently beat odds at the bookmakers with sharp odds can be profitable.
All of Sporita’s value bets within the Free Tips section on Sporita’s website.
Tips that have a Score of 8-10 are regarded as Value bets.
Arbitrage Football Betting Strategy
A different football betting method professional football punters employ is Arbitrage.
Arbitrage betting can be a possibility when the bettors can profit of the differences in price between the two outcomes of the same occasion for the purpose of gaining the possibility of a profit that is guaranteed.
An example is:
Market under or over 2.5 goal.
Bookie A: Over 2.5 odds 2.10
Bookie B: Under 2.5 Goals 2.05
You can bet on both outcomes, and you’ll win regardless of what happens.
It is possible to consider that this scenario is unusual and might never occur.
But , you’re not.
The reason for this is due to:
- 1.Bookies make mistakes.
- 2.Bookies forget to update their chances.
- 3.Bookies calculate their odds differently.
However, there are a few dangers.
- 1.Bookies may cancel your bets.
- 2.Bookies may limit your account.
Additionally, to be a successful logistical operation:
- 1.You need to own betting accounts with several bookmakers.
- 2.Act fast once you find an arbitrage bet opportunity as it can disappear in a flash.
In addition, you might require a paid soccer prediction service as finding arbitrage betting opportunities can be difficult to achieve manually.
Many of the most successful football gamblers employ this betting strategy for sports betting however, it requires lots of work and effort to earn a significant amount of money by arbitrage betting.
Double Chance Home/Draw Football Betting Strategy
It’s a favorite personal favourite of mine.
Two reasons:
- A football-related strategy is able to produce a high rate of return (up 50 percent).
- There is no need for an expert football prediction service to do this. You can accomplish this all on your own.
I’m not certain if this method is utilized by all bettors, however my experience has shown it extremely profitable.
To be successful with this strategy of betting, you should:
- 1. Watch or at the very least, follow as many football games as you can.
- 2. Know the current status of the teams you’re betting against and on.
- 3. Read comprehensive previews prior to each game.
- 4. Be informed about important injuries, suspensions.
- 5. Be familiar with various tactics and team formations.
There is a reason why, often the bookies overestimate the value of the bookmaker player.
Just in November, I came across numerous instances of this.
November 6, 2018.
Barcelona took on Inter Milan in round 4 of the group stage of the UCL.
In the lead-up to the game, Inter was in excellent form , rising to second at the top of the Serie A.
While Barcelona finished second La Liga, if you observed any of their matches it was clear that their defense was not like it was in the previous season as they were allowing goals at alarming rate.
However, Barca was the stronger team and could be considered the favorites in Italy.
However, they were without Leo Messi, the best player in the world! He scored 13 goals from 32 Barca goals, as well as helped on six more up to this point.
Many bookshops have Inter or Draw within 1.62 to 1.70.
Crazy high odds!
The PS1000 bet would have brought you a return between PS620 and 700.
Fast forward to the 10th of November.
Dortmund was playing Bayern Munich in round 11 of the Bundesliga.
Dortmund was on very top with not one loss.
They also were at the top of the UCL group, in which they beat Atletico Madrid 4-0.
Dortmund was a team that was on rising.
A fierce and determined group of players in the midst of their development, in the middle of some of top players in Europe.
Bayern was, on the other hand, had lost three games in the Bundesliga at the time and was in awful form.
However, they were the favorite to win at Dortmund.
Take a look at these odds.
From 1.95 to 2.02 to ensure Dortmund not to be able to win at home.
That’s bananas!
Actually, Sporita predicted a Dortmund victory for Dortmund.
Handing out the 8.3 scoring tip.
Final example:
November 23
Wembley Stadium.
Tottenham vs Chelsea
Tottenham Fourth in the league.
Chelsea is 3rd.
Tottenham was in excellent performance, but so was Chelsea.
It was also only the second game that Alli, Eriksen, Son and Kane were in the same team and played at home.
There is no reason why Chelsea was not a favorite.
But take a look:
Anything between 1.55 to 1.59 between 1.55 and 1.59 for Tottenham to not lose.
You’re insane to be willing to risk these chances.
The majority of people say that to succeed in betting, you must first be proficient with numbers and I’m with you.
However, I would like to add that you must also know the game. The players, the teams as well as the techniques.
The double chance at home strategy is ideal for all players who keep track of the games and are aware of the game from head to toe.
If you need assistance in evaluating the current team’s form. It’s in tips tabs.
Tap any Tip.
Then a pop-up similar like the below one will be displayed.
Make use of the Team form to glance at latest results.
Utilize Team Rank to see how teams compare to one another based on their recent performance.
Make use of the injury report to find out who’s playing and who’s off.
As I mentioned before it is one of my most-loved betting strategies and I’d highly recommend anyone who is committed to achieving success in the field of football betting.
This strategy is designed for people who truly love football and not just bet on it.
Conclusion
There’s no definitive rule on the football betting strategy that is the most effective or can guarantee you to be an effective football bet.
I believe that the three strategies listed above to be the most effective football betting strategies for a consistent, long-term return.
The bottom line is that I would suggest that you test them all. Don’t let yourself be discouraged if experience some bumps and bruises at the beginning.
Making money from football betting is a lengthy process.
It’s all you have to do is persevere.
One important note:
It is important to remember that managing your bankroll correctly could be the difference between success and failure in the strategy you employ to bet.
I’m confident that following this article, you’ll be better equipped to make informed bets which will boost your betting on football.