It’s no secret that once bookmaker’s sports analyst created the opening odds and they begin changing. They fluctuate throughout the day, up to the point at which the match starts. Before we go into the science behind it, let’s consider the following question: why is it so important that professional gamblers be aware?
We want to know what the odds being offered by bookmakers are more or less than the real odds. If it’s higher, then we will make the potential for profit, but if it is not, we’ll take a pass. The actual probabilities are the real likelihood of something happening in sports. What is the actual probability of Liverpool winning in the home match against Chelsea? What’s the most likely possibility of Messi scoring at the very least in a game in a match against Real Madrid?
These are the kinds of questions every bookmaker tries to find the answers. And if we are able to do better than the competition, we’re lucky. In addition the bookmaker has disadvantages over betting on the race. This is due to the fluctuation in odds. Without odds changing this race will be the race to see who can do better in math and sports knowledge.
Then why do bookmakers have to maintain the odds until the game starts? It’s because it’s too risky for them , and they may be out of business in just the span of a single day. Imagine an event that Tottenham plays Arsenal within the English Premier League. The bookmakers’ experts have determined that the opening odds for 1×2 at 2.5 3, 3 and 2.5. Following that it was decided that everyone Spurs supporters decided to support their team, however Gunners fans weren’t at all keen to bet the day. In this case, there were millions of dollars were bet on one outcome and none in the opposite direction. In this means that a home win puts a bookmaker on the edge of going bankrupt. If the situation is repeated then a bookmaker won’t last.
This is the reason bookmakers alter odds. In reality, in the case above the bookmaker will lower the odds of Tottenham winning repeatedly. The odds for away wins will increase to maintain the balance. Then it becomes less an attractive proposition backing Spurs and it becomes a great opportunity to bet on Gunners. So bookies will keep around the same amount that they put on every game in order to maintain their margin.
Then why is it an advantage for a bookmaker as well as an opportunity for an experienced punter? Because there are times where the odds offered are significantly higher than the actual odds. The bookmaker has nothing about it since it can break the balance and expose them to the risk loss of their company.
These are the most profitable bets which we, as punters must profit from.
Another reason to alter the odds is unexpected information. There’s a person in every book-making firm who is responsible for the job. The person who is in charge of this job must be first to be informed of information about injuries or misconduct that is not on the playing field or the sack of a manager. He might read the news every hour or have inside knowledge however, when something similar to becomes apparent to him and he is able to get into his IT department to request to alter the odds.
The potential here is in the different timing of response between bookmakers. As we keep an eye on the odds, we may observe a sudden decline for one bookmaker as well as a slow response for another. If we’re quick to place our bets with the second bookie, we have luck. The value of betting is was found!
I attempted to illustrate here the two most frequent causes of odds fluctuation. You can pick to use only one of them however, if we are able to find value bets in both of them, it will give us more worth bets. Also, the greater the profitable bets we can make, the less investment we require!