A glance at the Football Prediction Algorithm

The normal procedure of the football forecasting algorithm is according to:

This is a search for something from the past that could have an impact on the future. It then uses an equation to come up with a prediction.

We all do it in our minds at the start of our journey. We visit a statistics website to see team’s performance in the past to assess the odds and decide on a bet.

As an example, suppose we decide to place a bet on the Merseyside football match. Imagine, the stats prior to the match are as follows. Liverpool is the home team is winning its most recent five games and hasn’t lost a single game in Enfield in the last two years, and is free of injuries. Everton however, on contrary is in poor condition. They’ve lost their last three matches and the manager is set to be dismissed and their primary forward is out of the game because of suspension.

Okay, we’re quite certain that Liverpool will prevail. But is the odds worth the risk? If the odds are 2 (50 percent chance) We would all have jumped on this chance right away. If it’s 1.6 We would be looking at it. If it’s 1.3 then we’d pass.

The process of making a decision that a punter’s brain goes through in this tale has laid the foundation of our system.

We first determine a rank for a playing team. Based on points earned through previous games such as goals scored/conceded and shots, potentially dangersome attacks, passing and so on.

Then we adjust the rank based on home or away performance, the importance of the game (midseason match versus champions league final) and the psychological state (promotion/relegation depends on it).

Following that we use mathematical tools to transform odds into ranks and compare them with bookies. If bookies offer a better chance of winning, we will bet on it. We refer to the difference between odds offered by bookies and ours the value.

Then we repeat the procedure to find hundreds of games in the week ahead and identify the most profitable bets available.

We have also run the algorithm for the last three years and came up with the following: 14315 value bets. The annual average return on investment of 27 percent. If you stake 100 euros this is close to 400,000EUR net profit for the entire time. This is 133,000 EUR annually. More than 10,000EUR per month.


The wisdom of crowds

17 academic papers were written in the past trying to create an mathematical model that could accurately predict the result of a football game.

None of the models has been able to beat the most powerful method that has proven to be an excellent prediction of future events from the time in Ancient Greece – the Wisdom of the Crowd. This means that a large enough amount of people are typically in the right place. One great illustration of this technique is a closing odd in an football game. Since it is based on the way that thousands of punters put their bets. If you want to be a professional gambler it is a crucial element to comprehend. So, let me dive into details.

Let’s start with the beginning, and then see what happens to the odd from the first day.

The first step is that a bookie “expert” calculates the starting odd using his own mathematical. I’ve personally met a handful of them and I can be honest, they did not do an excellent job. After spending the night at the bar for a birthday celebration, they will randomly decide on the chances of winning a game.

Then, punters begin placing bets. At first there are only one or two but then they increase and eventually, around 60% of bets are placed on the day of the match. The odds are constantly changing until they settle before a match starts. Thus, the final and settled odds are in reality a guess made by many thousands of punters who voice their opinions through the betting bets. This is known as”the Wisdom of the Crowd. It is the idea that when a huge number of people take the chance to guess, in average they’re almost always correct. It is also scientifically proved.

Thus, there isn’t any worth in placing bets just prior to the game – it’s the true chance (true chance) less a bookie’s margin.

This is why it’s crucial to bet at the very least one day before the game. A few days earlier is even better. A little more than a week is amazing.

A different interesting conclusion can be drawn from the above is when the odd falls prior to the day of the match, then the bookmaker “expert” has made a error. If you made this bet – it was a good bet. If a tipter offered this advice to you that was good advice.

More than 90% of our VIP tips on Sporita begin to decrease towards game day. This means that we are better than bookies “experts” and provide only high-quality bets.