In 2015, the relegation favourites Leicester City changed the betting game forever when they won the EPL title in the year 2015. Bookies and bettors alike in disbelief, the fervent supporters earned up to the equivalent of 200,000 pounds. Even those who put bets as a joke were screaming in delight as the team swept across the field with a remarkable regularity.
In the context of a lesson in historical it provides an fascinating insight into the way that probability often fails to predict outcomes. It was not an unthinkable incident, but it was an extremely unlikely event. That’s not to say that it’s impossible to anticipate every possibility that may occur however it does suggest that we need to be more cautious when it comes to the bets we make.
There is only one way to accomplish that is to utilize more accurate prediction methods and strategies for betting that maximise the profits from betting. Let’s take a look at the events that transpired during the 15-16 EPL season which caused bookies to be horrified.
In the present Premier League scenario, Leicester City has long since passed its glory times. While the club has won numerous silver medals throughout its 135-year time but it has nearly always been in the middle of relegation in the EPL over the last 20 years. Of the six times the team played in the EPL since the season of 00-01 the team has been removed twice and never finished in the top 10 positions. The only exception was the 15-16 season, which is.
With a record as bleak as theirs, to suggest that they might be able to win the trophy was laughable. It seemed like a shambles to be victorious that bookies put the odds at 5500/1 that they would be victorious in the EPL. Let’s consider this: If you placed a bet of PS50 on Leicester during the season, you’d be able to earn PS250,000 by the time the season was over.
Of course, nobody has made that much on the bet as nobody wanted to put down 50 pounds for such an unpopular bet. However, bookmakers across the UK paid the sum in the region of fifteen million pounds to people who bet on such bets.
Opinions in the Betting Industry
To gain an understanding of what was the opinion of those who bet on Leicester winning, many conducted an retrospective analysis of similar events that were betting on. Incredibly, most of these were extremely unlikely and trivial but they were also more likely as compared to Leicester or the EPL.
Each one is a truly humorous example due to its absurdity and naivety. It is important to realize that when we talk about impossible, the thing we are referring to is is a chance that the situation is not able to be explained. As an example, the likelihood of someone gaining wings and flying away is low, which means the event is likely to have massive chance of occurring.
This can be for many reasons; maybe there is no relation between the two events, their biologically/physically impossible and many other reasons. The point is:
The Queen Getting to the Top of Billboard Charts
It’s quite unlikely, isn’t it? The queen was just 90 years old at the time that Leicester had its extremely profitable EPL campaign. However, if there was a chance that she’d release an album specifically for Christmas the odds of being a top 1 hit on the chart were 1000-1.
Sure, for one thing, there is no consensus on whether the queen of England will decide to make a song. In addition If she is not blessed with a musical talent that has been kept from the the public for all this time, there’s no chance that the track will make it to number one in the charts during Christmas. But, she was considered five times more likely to be there as Leicester was to win the prize.
The Loch Ness Monster Will Be Discovered
So, we’re pretty much in agreement on the fact that it is that Loch Ness Monster can be described as an unsubstantiated legend. Even if a blurry image surfaced that’s believed to be inconclusive evidence, regardless of years of investigations that did not yield any evidence.
You’d think that this incident could have better odds than Leicester’s. at least , the Queen was well and alive and the Loch Ness monster doesn’t even exist. What’s more, the chances of finding it were 500-1, which is ten times more than Leicester’s!
Elvis is Alive
There have been numerous theories about the King. Some still think that the reason he went under was the threat to his existence in the entertainment business , or the fact that he couldn’t take on the attention. It doesn’t matter if the man would have been 80 by the season of ’15-16, an age where the median life expectancy was 72 years old.
The odds were 2000-1. Half a time more that Leicester taking home the EPL.
With all this said It’s quite evident what everyone thought when the game was played. Sure, putting the odds on the table was a lot of fun, and some even make bets on the odds, but nobody thought they would be successful.
Perhaps, but nobody really understood what they were talking about. Bettors on Leicester didn’t know about what was happening.
What Does This Tell Us?
There are a few lessons to learn from this. Bettors need to gain an understanding of the possibility that something unlikely could actually happen, no matter how long of a shot it might seem. Improved predictive analytics will assist bookies and bettors make better decisions about betting to limit their losses, or maximize their winnings.
As we build more accurate forecasting models, then we are able to make better educated guess the outcomes of football matches will be. This is why Big Data analytics offers much possibility of avoiding future uncertainties like this. In spite of the loyalty we have to the clubs we love bets have always focused on making the most value from the money that is bet.
The history of football is evidence of the type of upsets that we witnessed during this 2015-16 EPL season. Maybe there will be a point at which we can predict this kind of thing within the next few years.
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